What is the direction of highest probability today? (05/11/09)
November 5, 2009 - 3:40 am by FX Instructor · 4 Comments
by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)
Key events today:
12:00PM GMT – BoE rate decision
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Markets are focusing on the asset purchase program, rather than interest rates, with the market split over a $25b expansion, $50b, or no expansion.
If the Bank of England raise its QE, we could see how the Pound gets pounded. While, no expansion would see the Pound be supported, but caution is warranted as most economists see the need for an expansion to continue supporting the economy.
12:45PM GMT – ECB rate decision
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If the European Central bank raises interest rates, we could see the EUR move higher although this is highly unlikely.
Markets expect no change in their decision and interest rates are likely to remain at 1.00% . Listen to the speech afterwards by Pres. Trichet at 8:30 EDT. Market should pick up steam at this time..
Probability Studies:
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Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4820
Bearish Probability below:1.4820
Significant support: 1.4820, 1.4660
Significant resistance:none
Direction of Highest Probability: NA
Bearish Probability below: 1.6267
Bullish Probability above: 1.6570
Significant resistance: 1.6570, 1.6625
Significant support:1.6056, 1.6267
Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9100, 0.9130
Bullish Probability above: 0.9130
Significant resistance: 0.9130, 0.8940
Significant support:
Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 90.35
Bearish Probability below: 90.35
Significant support: 90.35
Significant resistance:90.25
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This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory
Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system
within.
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Enjoy and good luck!
Johan
ecb cut rates?? boe cut rates?? what the heck are you saying.. you better get your fundamentals straight.
BoE's interest rates are already ultra-low – there isn't anything to cut! maybe what you mean is an expansion of their QE program…
i feel sorry for your readers, especially the newbie ones – feeding them poorly researched information like that
ecb cut rates?? boe cut rates?? what the heck are you saying.. you better get your fundamentals straight.
BoE's interest rates are already ultra-low – there isn't anything to cut! maybe what you mean is an expansion of their QE program…
i feel sorry for your readers, especially the newbie ones – feeding them poorly researched information like that
Hi,
yeah Ill talk to Johan at fxinstructor to see if he meant interest rates or QE, because there is no way they will cut interest rates. He does need to get his fundies in order., if that's the case
Thanks for the comment.
I just made corrections at the top, but I need to make sure their analysts know what they are doing before they continue posting here.
Thanks for pointing the error out. This was unacceptable, nothing made sense.
Thank you,
Juan Bejarano