Forex: The Risk Today

The Risk Today: EurUsd Risk appetite has continued to struggle since the Goldman inspired equity market slump on Friday, and EURUSD has also been weighed by the ash-triggered paralysis of European travel networks and the possibility of Greece activating the EU/IMF bailout mechanism appearing ever closer. We are now approaching a critical juncture for the [...]

SEC’s Allegations of Fraud Weigh on Risky Currencies

Forex News and Events: Risky currencies were sold in Asian session, as the SEC’s allegations of fraud and conflict of interest by a US investment bank weighted on investor’s sentiment. The EURUSD sank to 1.3437, while the USDJPY fell to 91.60. While the charges we very specific, there was significant position trimming across asset classes. [...]

Forex: The Risk Today

The Risk Today: EurUsd So it seems that yesterday’s early push to lows of 1.3286 was as far as the bearish momentum could take us, and the major 25 March lows at 1.3268 have not looked threatened since. Indeed, despite the ample supply of depressing economic news and Greek bond market mayhem, EURUSD has now [...]

Markets Focus on Greece & China

Forex News and Events: Markets are now completely focused on the situation in Greece and possible CNY revaluation. Everything else has just faded into the background. Greece debt came under heavy selling yesterday, with yield reaching 7.40% nearly 450bps over their German equivalent. Greece CDS are trading at nearly 6.50%, now 100bps above already bankrupt [...]

Forex: The Risk Today

The Risk Today: EurUsd Our head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart is now complete after hitting its target of 1.3330 yesterday afternoon, and securing over 100 pips of profit. As we had asserted previously, there was a good chance that the sell-off would overshoot our original target given that next downside support does [...]

Greece Just Can’t Get a Break

Forex News and Events: Things continue to get worse for Greece, which has been weighting on the EUR. An FT article reported that more than €10bn of deposits have been withdrawn the four largest Greek banks, forcing them to ask the Greek government for extra liquidity (from remaining Bank Support Package). This is not a [...]

Forex: The Risk Today

The Risk Today: EurUsd It’s slow going in the currency markets with sparse economic data to shrug off the residual long-weekend sluggishness; however we do have something to smile about as the head and shoulders pattern we highlighted yesterday is playing out according to plan; with the break of the 1.3460 neckline triggering a continued [...]

FOMC Minutes Broadly Predictable

Forex News and Events: The USD continues to make headway, as the optimism around the US grows and concerns of the Greek agreement erodes confidence in the EUR. However, lack of substantive drivers makes us expect a slight pullback in USD strength near term. Yesterday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes showed that the Fed [...]

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